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2006 Senate · NJ

CBS News/The New York Times · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 552 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 39%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.19%

D+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 39 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.204 − 41.185 = 16.019
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (16.019) = -15.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-15.019| = 15.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 15.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24224, race ID 1598 (538 database).