2008 Senate · SD
GQR · fieldwork ended 2008-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 32%
D+30.0
The certified result
Democrat 62.49% · Republican 37.51%
D+25.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 32 = 30.00
- Actual margin = 62.492 − 37.508 = 24.984
- Signed miss = 30.00 − (24.984) = 5.017
- Absolute miss = |5.017| = 5.017
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24077, race ID 1574 (538 database).