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2012 Governor · WI

Marquette University Law School · fieldwork ended 2012-05-25 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 52%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.28% · Republican 53.08%

R+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 52 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.282 − 53.082 = -6.800
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-6.800) = -0.200
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.200| = 0.200

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 18293, race ID 1269 (538 database).