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2008 President · CT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 39%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.59% · Republican 38.22%

D+22.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 39 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.589 − 38.221 = 22.368
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (22.368) = -5.367
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.367| = 5.367

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16862, race ID 710 (538 database).