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2008 House · ME-1

Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2008-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 207 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 32%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 45.10%

D+9.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 32 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.899 − 45.101 = 9.798
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (9.798) = 1.202
  4. Absolute miss = |1.202| = 1.202

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16830, race ID 4204 (538 database).