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2008 Governor · IN

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 1,411 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 57%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.04% · Republican 57.84%

R+17.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 57 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.036 − 57.841 = -17.805
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-17.805) = -3.194
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.194| = 3.194

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16803, race ID 1314 (538 database).