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2008 President · CA

Public Policy Institute of California · fieldwork ended 2008-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 1,186 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 33%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.01% · Republican 36.95%

D+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 33 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.013 − 36.955 = 24.058
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (24.058) = -1.058
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.058| = 1.058

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16801, race ID 708 (538 database).