2008 President · GA
GQR · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 46%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.99% · Republican 52.20%
R+5.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 46.990 − 52.205 = -5.215
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-5.215) = 3.214
- Absolute miss = |3.214| = 3.214
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16790, race ID 714 (538 database).