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2008 President · CO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 951 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 53.66% · Republican 44.71%

D+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.660 − 44.708 = 8.952
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (8.952) = -8.953
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.953| = 8.953

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16785, race ID 709 (538 database).