2008 President · IN
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 473 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 53%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.95% · Republican 48.91%
D+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 49.946 − 48.914 = 1.032
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (1.032) = -12.032
- Absolute miss = |-12.032| = 12.032
The poll overstated the Republican by 12.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16782, race ID 719 (538 database).