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2008 President · NM

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 534 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.78%

D+15.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.907 − 41.779 = 15.128
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (15.128) = -15.128
  4. Absolute miss = |-15.128| = 15.128

The poll overstated the Republican by 15.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16780, race ID 736 (538 database).