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2008 President · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2008-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 763 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 64%

R+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.35% · Republican 65.64%

R+31.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 64 = -32.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.355 − 65.645 = -31.290
  3. Signed miss = -32.00 − (-31.290) = -0.710
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.710| = 0.710

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16778, race ID 740 (538 database).