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2008 Governor · MT

Montana State University Billings · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 403 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 60.2% · Republican 27.3%

D+32.9

The certified result

Democrat 65.47% · Republican 32.52%

D+33.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60.2 − 27.3 = 32.90
  2. Actual margin = 65.471 − 32.516 = 32.955
  3. Signed miss = 32.90 − (32.955) = -0.055
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.055| = 0.055

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16768, race ID 1316 (538 database).