2008 Senate · MN
FTI Consulting · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 36%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.99% · Republican 41.98%
even
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 36 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 41.994 − 41.983 = 0.011
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.011) = 0.989
- Absolute miss = |0.989| = 0.989
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16763, race ID 1561 (538 database).