2008 President · NC
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2008-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 644 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 46%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.70% · Republican 49.38%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 49.704 − 49.376 = 0.328
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.328) = 4.671
- Absolute miss = |4.671| = 4.671
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16749, race ID 731 (538 database).