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2008 President · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 886 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 46%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.50% · Republican 46.91%

D+4.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.504 − 46.911 = 4.593
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (4.593) = -1.594
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.594| = 1.594

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16742, race ID 739 (538 database).