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2008 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2008-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 358 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 39%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.76% · Republican 45.86%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 39 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.760 − 45.864 = 5.896
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.896) = -0.896
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.896| = 0.896

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16741, race ID 4267 (538 database).