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2008 President · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 613 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 53%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.65% · Republican 56.61%

R+15.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 53 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.652 − 56.612 = -14.960
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-14.960) = 2.960
  4. Absolute miss = |2.960| = 2.960

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16737, race ID 720 (538 database).