2008 President · IN
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 631 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 45%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.95% · Republican 48.91%
D+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 49.946 − 48.914 = 1.032
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (1.032) = 2.968
- Absolute miss = |2.968| = 2.968
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16736, race ID 719 (538 database).