2008 President · FL
SEA Polling & Strategic Design · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.03% · Republican 48.22%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 51.033 − 48.215 = 2.818
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.818) = 4.182
- Absolute miss = |4.182| = 4.182
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16729, race ID 713 (538 database).