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2008 President · MN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 41%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.06% · Republican 43.82%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 41 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.060 − 43.823 = 10.237
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (10.237) = 4.763
  4. Absolute miss = |4.763| = 4.763

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16725, race ID 727 (538 database).