2008 Senate · MN
Big Ten · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 583 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 34%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.99% · Republican 41.98%
even
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 34 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 41.994 − 41.983 = 0.011
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (0.011) = 5.989
- Absolute miss = |5.989| = 5.989
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16716, race ID 1561 (538 database).