2008 President · MI
Big Ten · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 562 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 36%
D+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.43% · Republican 40.96%
D+16.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 36 = 22.00
- Actual margin = 57.431 − 40.958 = 16.473
- Signed miss = 22.00 − (16.473) = 5.527
- Absolute miss = |5.527| = 5.527
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16714, race ID 726 (538 database).