2008 President · IN
Big Ten · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 586 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 42%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.95% · Republican 48.91%
D+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 49.946 − 48.914 = 1.032
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (1.032) = 7.968
- Absolute miss = |7.968| = 7.968
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16711, race ID 719 (538 database).