2008 President · UT
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 32% · Republican 55%
R+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 34.41% · Republican 62.58%
R+28.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 32 − 55 = -23.00
- Actual margin = 34.406 − 62.584 = -28.178
- Signed miss = -23.00 − (-28.178) = 5.178
- Absolute miss = |5.178| = 5.178
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16680, race ID 748 (538 database).