2008 House · UT-3
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 22% · Republican 57%
R+35.0
The certified result
Democrat 28.28% · Republican 65.61%
R+37.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 22 − 57 = -35.00
- Actual margin = 28.283 − 65.610 = -37.327
- Signed miss = -35.00 − (-37.327) = 2.327
- Absolute miss = |2.327| = 2.327
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16680, race ID 4427 (538 database).