2008 House · NH-2
University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 344 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 26%
D+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.44% · Republican 41.42%
D+15.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 26 = 22.00
- Actual margin = 56.442 − 41.424 = 15.018
- Signed miss = 22.00 − (15.018) = 6.982
- Absolute miss = |6.982| = 6.982
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16677, race ID 4268 (538 database).