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2008 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 341 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 40%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.76% · Republican 45.86%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 40 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.760 − 45.864 = 5.896
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (5.896) = 2.104
  4. Absolute miss = |2.104| = 2.104

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16677, race ID 4267 (538 database).