2008 President · FL
Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 44%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.03% · Republican 48.22%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 51.033 − 48.215 = 2.818
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (2.818) = 2.182
- Absolute miss = |2.182| = 2.182
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16671, race ID 713 (538 database).