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2008 President · MO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 45.7%

D+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 49.29% · Republican 49.43%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 45.7 = 2.50
  2. Actual margin = 49.293 − 49.426 = -0.133
  3. Signed miss = 2.50 − (-0.133) = 2.633
  4. Absolute miss = |2.633| = 2.633

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16663, race ID 728 (538 database).