2008 President · PA
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2008-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 713 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 41%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.49% · Republican 44.17%
D+10.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 41 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 54.486 − 44.167 = 10.319
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (10.319) = 3.682
- Absolute miss = |3.682| = 3.682
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16650, race ID 742 (538 database).