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2008 President · NV

GfK Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 628 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 40%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.15% · Republican 42.65%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.147 − 42.654 = 12.493
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (12.493) = -0.493
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.493| = 0.493

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16635, race ID 737 (538 database).