2008 President · CO
GfK Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 626 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 41%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.66% · Republican 44.71%
D+9.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 41 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 53.660 − 44.708 = 8.952
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (8.952) = 0.047
- Absolute miss = |0.047| = 0.047
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16632, race ID 709 (538 database).