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2008 Senate · CO

GfK Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 626 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 36%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.80% · Republican 42.49%

D+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 36 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.796 − 42.492 = 10.304
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (10.304) = 1.696
  4. Absolute miss = |1.696| = 1.696

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16632, race ID 1548 (538 database).