2008 Senate · CO
FTI Consulting · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 409 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 36%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.80% · Republican 42.49%
D+10.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 36 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 52.796 − 42.492 = 10.304
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (10.304) = 4.696
- Absolute miss = |4.696| = 4.696
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16613, race ID 1548 (538 database).