2008 President · DE
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 657 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 63% · Republican 33%
D+30.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.94% · Republican 36.95%
D+25.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 63 − 33 = 30.00
- Actual margin = 61.943 − 36.947 = 24.996
- Signed miss = 30.00 − (24.996) = 5.004
- Absolute miss = |5.004| = 5.004
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16608, race ID 712 (538 database).