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2008 Senate · AL

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 650 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 65%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.52% · Republican 63.36%

R+26.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 65 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.520 − 63.362 = -26.842
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-26.842) = -6.158
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.158| = 6.158

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16607, race ID 1545 (538 database).