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2008 Senate · OR

Moore Information Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 45%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.91% · Republican 45.55%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 45 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.905 − 45.553 = 3.352
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (3.352) = -7.351
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.351| = 7.351

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16590, race ID 1571 (538 database).