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2008 President · KY

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 55%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.17% · Republican 57.40%

R+16.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 55 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.168 − 57.399 = -16.231
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-16.231) = 4.231
  4. Absolute miss = |4.231| = 4.231

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16563, race ID 721 (538 database).