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2008 House · NV-3

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2008-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.43% · Republican 42.29%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.429 − 42.291 = 5.138
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (5.138) = -5.138
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.138| = 5.138

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16555, race ID 4266 (538 database).