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2008 President · NH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.13% · Republican 44.52%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.127 − 44.521 = 9.606
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (9.606) = -2.605
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.605| = 2.605

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16533, race ID 734 (538 database).