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2008 President · OR

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 1,424 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 42%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.75% · Republican 40.40%

D+16.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 42 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.749 − 40.401 = 16.348
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (16.348) = -1.348
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.348| = 1.348

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16532, race ID 741 (538 database).