Skip to content

2008 Governor · WV

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 2,128 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 69% · Republican 27%

D+42.0

The certified result

Democrat 69.81% · Republican 25.73%

D+44.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 69 − 27 = 42.00
  2. Actual margin = 69.807 − 25.732 = 44.075
  3. Signed miss = 42.00 − (44.075) = -2.076
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.076| = 2.076

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16527, race ID 1322 (538 database).