2008 Governor · IN
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 900 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 55%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.04% · Republican 57.84%
R+17.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 55 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 40.036 − 57.841 = -17.805
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-17.805) = 0.806
- Absolute miss = |0.806| = 0.806
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16525, race ID 1314 (538 database).