2008 President · UT
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 1,205 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 32% · Republican 57%
R+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 34.41% · Republican 62.58%
R+28.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 32 − 57 = -25.00
- Actual margin = 34.406 − 62.584 = -28.178
- Signed miss = -25.00 − (-28.178) = 3.178
- Absolute miss = |3.178| = 3.178
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16524, race ID 748 (538 database).