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2008 Governor · UT

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 1,205 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 16% · Republican 77%

R+61.0

The certified result

Democrat 19.73% · Republican 77.63%

R+57.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 16 − 77 = -61.00
  2. Actual margin = 19.725 − 77.634 = -57.909
  3. Signed miss = -61.00 − (-57.909) = -3.091
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.091| = 3.091

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16524, race ID 1319 (538 database).