2008 Senate · ME
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 674 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 56%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.58% · Republican 61.33%
R+22.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 56 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 38.583 − 61.331 = -22.748
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-22.748) = 8.748
- Absolute miss = |8.748| = 8.748
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16507, race ID 1558 (538 database).