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2008 Senate · VA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 772 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 33%

D+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 65.03% · Republican 33.73%

D+31.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 33 = 25.00
  2. Actual margin = 65.033 − 33.729 = 31.304
  3. Signed miss = 25.00 − (31.304) = -6.304
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.304| = 6.304

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16493, race ID 1577 (538 database).