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2008 President · WY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 246 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 67%

R+38.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.54% · Republican 64.78%

R+32.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 67 = -38.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.541 − 64.776 = -32.235
  3. Signed miss = -38.00 − (-32.235) = -5.765
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.765| = 5.765

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16480, race ID 754 (538 database).