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2008 President · NJ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 777 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 40%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.27% · Republican 41.70%

D+15.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 40 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.272 − 41.704 = 15.568
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (15.568) = -0.568
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.568| = 0.568

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16468, race ID 735 (538 database).